THE SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13
NFL PRESEASON
Washington at Baltimore
Ravens coach John Harbaugh and Redskins coach Jim Zorn begin their second seasons at the helm of their respective teams when these regional rivals clash at M&T Bank Stadium.
Washington starting QB Jason Campbell is expected to play only a series or two and Zorn said all three of his backup passers – veteran Todd Collins, second-year pro Colt Brennan and rookie Chase Daniel – are “likely” to play, but he refused to reveal “all the things we have planned.”
Harbaugh said his starters, including second-year QB Joe Flacco, will play “in the neighborhood of one quarter.” Troy Smith and John Beck will follow Flacco, with rookie Drew Willy possibly getting mop-up duty.
The Redskins went 3-2 (2-3 against the spread) in Zorn’s first preseason in 2008. However, going back to 2004, Washington is mired in a 5-11 SU and ATS slump in August, including 2-6 SU and ATS on the road.
The Ravens won Harbaugh’s debut last year, upsetting New England 16-15 as a four-point road underdog, then proceeded to drop their final three summer outings both SU and ATS. Baltimore is in a 2-5 SU and ATS funk in preseason play since 2007, including 1-3 SU and ATS at home and 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
The under is 11-4 in Baltimore’s last 15 exhibition contests, including 3-1 last year. Washington also stayed low in six of its last nine preseason games. Finally, the under is 7-1 in the last eight regular season and preseason contests between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New England at Philadelphia
Tom Brady is expected to see game action for the first time in 11 months as the Patriots travel to Lincoln Financial Field for their preseason debut against the Eagles.
Brady, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the opening quarter of the first game of last year, said this week that he expects to play tonight. However, as usual, New England coach Bill Belichick was non-committal on playing time for any of his players. Brady would be followed by second-year pro Kevin O’Connell, rookie Brian Hoyer and veteran Andrew Walter.
Philadelphia coach Andy Reid said Donovan McNabb and his starters will play 1½ quarters. However, Reid will be without the services of second-string QB Kevin Kolb, who was injured in practice this week and is out for this contest. That means veteran A.J. Feeley will follow McNabb and likely finish up, though Adam DiMichele, who was signed this week, may see fourth-quarter action.
The Patriots went winless in August last year both SU and ATS, including a 27-17 loss to the Eagles as a three-point home chalk in Week 3. New England hasn’t had a winning preseason since going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2003, and it has lost five of its last six preseason road games (1-4-1 ATS) and three consecutive preseason openers (0-2-1 ATS).
The Eagles have had just one winning preseason in Reid’s decade-long tenure at the helm, also managing just three .500 campaigns during this stretch. One of those came last year when Philadelphia split its four games in August, going 1-1 SU and ATS both at home and on the road. The Eagles are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six exhibition games at Lincoln Financial Field, but they’ve dropped five straight preseason openers (0-5 ATS) dating to 2004.
The over is 7-2 in Philadelphia’s last nine preseason games (3-1 at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arizona at Pittsburgh
The Cardinals and Steelers return to the field for the first time since their thrilling Super Bowl matchup in February, with Arizona traveling to Heinz Field for this preseason opener.
Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt said his starters will probably play just a couple of series, including starting quarterback Kurt Warner. Once Warner departs, Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre, both of whom are battling for the No. 2 job, will take over, possibly followed by fourth-stringer Tyler Palko.
Ben Roethlisberger will start under center for Pittsburgh, but like Warner only will play a couple of series. Coach Mike Tomlin said he hopes that the other three QBs on his roster – veteran Charlie Batch and youngsters Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly – will all see some action, but he didn’t specify in what order or for how long.
The Cardinals followed up a winless preseason in Whisenhunt’s first year with a 2-2 SU and ATS mark last year. Arizona is 8-4 SU and ATS as a visitor in August since 2003 (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS on the highway under Whisenhunt), but it has lost its first two preseason games in each of the last two years.
The Steelers began their run to their six Super Bowl title by beating instate rival Philadelphia 16-10 as a one-point home favorite in their preseason opener a year ago, improving to 2-0 SU and ATS in Week 1 under Tomlin. Although Pittsburgh failed to cover in its final three exhibition contests last year, it did finish 3-1 SU and is 7-2 SU in August since Tomlin took over as coach (4-5 ATS).
Pittsburgh rallied for a last-minute 27-23 victory over Arizona to win Super Bowl XLII, but failed to cash as a 6½-point favorite.
The Cardinals are on a 11-4 ATS run as an underdog in preseason action, while the Steelers are 7-12 ATS as preseason chalk since 2002.
The under is 11-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 summer contests, but the Cardinals have topped the total in seven of their last 10 in the preseason.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Dallas at Oakland
The Raiders officially christen the Tom Cable era as the new coach leads the silver-and-black against the Cowboys at the Oakland Coliseum.
Dallas coach Wade Phillips indicated that his starters on both sides of the ball will play “around a quarter or so,” although last year, the first-string offense played just one drive in the opener. Once top QB Tony Romo departs, veteran Jon Kitna will take control of the offense, with rookies Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter playing most, if not all, of the second half.
Former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell, now in his third season, will start at QB for the Raiders and play about one quarter with the rest of the first string. However, veteran backup Jeff Garcia (injury) will not play, meaning Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye, who are battling for the No. 3 job, will see significant action.
The Cowboys have split their four preseason games in coach Wade Phillips’ first two years (3-5 ATS), winning all four at home (3-1 ATS) while losing all four on the road (0-4 ATS). Those four road defeats were by a total of 45 points, including three double-digit losses and a nine-point setback.
The Raiders were a mediocre 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS in two preseasons for former coach Lane Kiffin. However, they’ve been a moneymaker at home in August over the last three years, going 5-1 SU and ATS. Oakland is also 4-1 ATS as an exhibition chalk during this span and 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three preseason openers.
Dallas went 4-0 SU and ATS against the Raiders in preseason play from 2001-2004, the most recent exhibition battles between the legendary NFL squads.
The under is 13-4 in Oakland’s last four preseasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (71-43) at Seattle (60-54)
The Yankees take baseball’s best record to the Pacific Northwest for the first time this season, with ace CC Sabathia (12-7, 3.76) slated to toe the slab at Safeco Field against the Mariners’ Ian Snell (0-0, 6.14).
New York wrapped up a successful seven-game homestand with Wednesday afternoon’s 4-3, 11-inning victory over the Blue Jays. The Yankees won five of seven on the homestand and they’re 9-1 in their last 10 (3-0 on the road). Additionally, the Bronx Bombers are on sensational runs of 36-16 overall, 35-17 against right-handed starters and 10-3 in series openers.
Seattle got a two-out RBI single from Ken Griffey Jr. in the bottom of the 14th inning Wednesday night to put away the White Sox 1-0. The Mariners are 6-2 in their last eight at home and 4-1 in their last five against the A.L. East, but they’ve dropped seven of 10 when facing left-handed starters.
New York is on an 11-3 roll against the Mariners, but it has lost five of its last seven at Safeco Field.
Sabathia improved to 4-1 in his last five starts with Saturday’s dominating 5-0 victory over the Red Sox, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out nine over 7 2/3 scoreless innings. The hefty lefty pitched at least seven innings in all four victories and has gone into the seventh inning in six of his last seven outings. However, Sabathia has won three straight games just once this season, back in mid May.
Sabathia is 7-5 with a 3.89 ERA in 13 road starts this year and 4-4 with a 3.42 ERA in 12 career starts against the Mariners, including an 8-4 home loss on July 2 when he gave up six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings in his second worst start of the season. On the bright side, Sabathia is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA in seven games at Safeco Field.
Snell lasted just 1 1/3 innings on Saturday’s against the Rays, giving up three runs on two hits and six walks, and though he escaped with a no-decision, Seattle lost 10-4 at home. The veteran right-hander, who was acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline, is a combined 2-8 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts this year. Snell, whose first career start at Safeco Field came on Saturday, has never faced the Yankees.
For New York, the “over” is on runs of 4-0-1 on the road, 6-1-1 versus the A.L. West, 4-1-1 on Thursday, 5-1 in Sabathia’s last six road outings and 4-0-1 in Sabathia’s last five versus A.L. West foes. Similarly, Seattle is on “over” streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-2 at home and 5-1-1 in series openers. Finally, seven of the last 10 clashes between these squads have topped the total, but the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Safeco Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
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